Curse

Im in SPAMADAN · Jun 04, 2011, 04:45 AM // 04:45

Any opinions on price increase or decrease on ZCoins (Gold, Silver) In the Long Run? And if so, how much do u think it will decrease/increase by?

I personally do not see them decreasing all that much since zkeys will remain at 5-7k. Gold Zcoins will always be a bit above that, id guess gold will drop to 10k making silv remain at 1k / ea

Discuss.

p.S: I see Silv ZCoin @ 1k/ea and Gold Zcoin @ 10-14k/ea price range in Great temple of balth ad1 at this time.

melissa b · Jun 04, 2011, 04:54 AM // 04:54

Probably 8k in the long run, 10k sooner than later
Zkeys and Elite Tomes will maintain its minimum value for the long term.
Envoy weapons are new so that will push it up for a little bit

However there is a certain unknown factor

Will new rewards be added?
Will other envoy weapon skins be added?
Will reward creep continue adding more coins on the market or decrease the coin requirement for some items?
Will envoy weapons be given an update to add to the hom?
etc?

jimbo32 · Jun 04, 2011, 05:21 AM // 05:21

14k (or 2e, which I've also heard) for a gold coin is silly. I agree with melissa that they'll probably eventually settle at around 8k.

Since they made the new weapon skins so expensive, they should've made the daily PvE zquests repeatable while they were at it. I don't think it would affect the value too much - maybe the coins would be 5k-ish or so. But it'd make the rewards a bit more accessible.

ACWhammy · Jun 04, 2011, 05:53 AM // 05:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Im in SPAMADAN

I personally do not see them decreasing all that much since zkeys will remain at 5-7k. .

Probably the same value as a zkey. But I'm curious where you got this above information ^^

Swingline · Jun 04, 2011, 05:58 AM // 05:58

imo they will settle around 10k

Voodoo Rage · Jun 04, 2011, 06:00 AM // 06:00

I don't see selling a gold coin for less than 12k since elite rit tomes are still selling easily at that price. Everyone is rolling rits and all of the key players skills, Signet of Spirits, Signet of Ghostly Might, and Soul Twisting are really far away for a new character.

melissa b · Jun 04, 2011, 06:29 AM // 06:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Voodoo Rage

I don't see selling a gold coin for less than 12k since elite rit tomes are still selling easily at that price. Everyone is rolling rits and all of the key players skills, Signet of Spirits, Signet of Ghostly Might, and Soul Twisting are really far away for a new character.

Elite Rit Tomes used to require 2 gold zcoins and went for 12-14k, surely with yesterdays update only requiring 1 will hurt their price.

Mcsnake85 · Jun 04, 2011, 07:47 AM // 07:47

I bought 200 of them for 1.5e each, in other words 10.5-11.25k / each so agree with Voodoo, they can be set to 12k/each.

melissa b · Jun 04, 2011, 08:09 AM // 08:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

I bought 200 of them for 1.5e each, in other words 10.5-11.25k / each so agree with Voodoo, they can be set to 12k/each.

How does what the price you paid today or yesterday, considering the zcoins just became trade-able yesterday, determine the long term price that the original poster is asking?

Mcsnake85 · Jun 04, 2011, 08:16 AM // 08:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by melissa b

How does what the price you paid today or yesterday, considering the zcoins just became trade-able yesterday, determine the long term price that the original poster is asking?

I just said my opinion,i can be easily wrong...they can reach 100000k/each or they can drop to 1g/each, we dont know how the things go.
Btw since you can buy 1 elite rit tome for 1 gold coins and they worth over 12k i dont think they drop in price.

melissa b · Jun 04, 2011, 08:20 AM // 08:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mcsnake85

I just said my opinion,i can be easily wrong...they can reach 100000k/each or they can drop to 1g/each, we dont know how the things go.
Btw since you can buy 1 elite rit tome for 1 gold coins and they worth over 12k i dont think they drop in price.

The 12k elite rit tome price is today, how will it maintain that price in the long term when it requires half the gold coins of just 2 days ago?

Mcsnake85 · Jun 04, 2011, 08:31 AM // 08:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by melissa b

The 12k elite rit tome price is today, how will it maintain that price in the long term when it requires half the gold coins of just 2 days ago?

You are right, but Elite Rit tomes are 12k+ for at least 1 age.
Price is set in base of how much money that item can bring if we speaking about Reward trophy Items.
For Example, how much is a Trade Contract?
simple: *Price of ruby* / 7
so,if a ruby is 7k, 1 trade contract is 1k...
So if an Elite Rit tome is 12k why i have to buy/sell the gold coin for less?
Why you have to sell a trade contract for less than *Price of ruby* / 7 ?
When the Elite rit Tome drops to 10k or to 1k,then gold coins probably drop.
Simple logic,same that wiki use.

Estic · Jun 04, 2011, 08:44 AM // 08:44

McSnake: Because you seem to have missed this post I'm going to quote it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by melissa b

Elite Rit Tomes used to require 2 gold zcoins and went for 12-14k, surely with yesterdays update only requiring 1 will hurt their price.

Simple logic really.

Mcsnake85 · Jun 04, 2011, 09:13 AM // 09:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Estic

McSnake: Because you seem to have missed this post I'm going to quote it.

Simple logic really.

yep cant say no, but :
2 Coins = 2 keys and 2 keys were 7k/each [3/4 days ago],2x7=14k
2 Coins = 1 Elite Ritualist Tome and it is 12k
So, what you buy with 2 Coins? simple : 2 Zkeys.

Ritualist tome can drop in price, never said they cant..but it is 12k+ for a long time,so ppl can keep offer12k/each BUT just my opinion.
If ppl keep offer 12k/each for a Elite ritualist tome, drop of coins never drop.

You must add the time to farm a gold coin that make all price increase a little even if they drop in price. So ppl always ADD Xk for the time they waste in Zbounty/Zmissions/Zpvp battle.

*If you guys think different,im can buy all your Z-Gold coins for...dunno 9k/each?If they drop in price yu guys earn money and i loose a lot of money

(joke guys

)

dasmitchies · Jun 04, 2011, 09:24 AM // 09:24

Zcoins cannot be power farmed. There is a limit one can get based on time alone. For this reason prices will not be determined like ectos or zkeys. While I believe elite tomes will take a long term price hit, Zcoins will probably settle to 8k for gold after a month due to the length of time required to get one. Even with repeatable quests and such time still limits their acquisition unlike ectos and such.

Urcscumug · Jun 04, 2011, 01:02 PM // 13:02

6-8k for zkeys, gold zcoins and elite tomes. The only reason elite tomes were more was because they required 2 gold zcoins.

(For elite tomes, btw, this is the cap, and will only apply to the professions in the current meta. For other professions they will sell for less.)

For silver zcoin it's a bit more complicated due to the larger amount of interesting stuff you can get for it. Realistically, probably 600-800g, mainly due to the 1:10 rate with gold zc and 1:2 with lockpicks.

Warning on Balth Flames: they will most likely drop in price since they now have to match 1:1 with lockpicks, 1:2 with silver zc, and 1:5 with zkeys. This means roughly 1/3 of their current value.

As for regular tomes, I don't see them approaching 1k. I know that some people ask 1k for "hot" professions like the rit, but they seem to overlook the fact that for 1k you can simply get the skill from the skill trader. Without an incentive of a few hundred gold I have no reason to buy a rit tome. They're available for 600-800g and I don't see them going higher. (Don't say that the skill trader also wants skill points. Skill points are not exactly scarce.)

Mcsnake85 · Jun 04, 2011, 02:08 PM // 14:08

As i said, ppl set the price in base of the max quantity of money they can get with that reward trophy, for example :

Quote:

Monastery Credits
Gold saved is gold earned, and since it only takes three credits to purchase an Expert Salvage Kit with a purchase value of 400Gold, each credit would be worth 133.33Gold. Or, even better, a Rune of Holding with a purchase value of 500 gold, makes each credit worth 166.66Gold.

[http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Monastery_Credit]

Now, set a price for static value items is really easy,for items that can drop in price or raise is a bit harder, but the procedure is the same.
Lets speak about Gold Coins

i dont care about other coins,because item that you can get are irrilevant)
You have to do yourself some question before set a price:
1)How much worth items that i can get with coins and how much ppl pay?
2)How many coins i must spend to get them?
3)How easy can i get items that i buy with GCoins,using other farms?
4)Can be only obtain trough Gcoins or no?
When you know all aswers about those question you have to think how to maximize your gain in money:
With 1 Gold Coin you can buy 1x Elite Assassin tome,but we know that worth 2k on top since you can get it easily with raptor farm,so not worth get it and resell no?
So there are another 2 option to maximize :
1) Elite Ritualist tome : harder to farm (not impossible,just hard)
2) light equipment pack
Light equipment pack (10 slot) is really not that popoular, and how much is can worth?lets suppose 4x times the smaller one: 4x2.5k=10k that can be a good price,but not enough.
Elite ritualist tome is going between 12k to 15k MAX, but can be sell easy for 12/13k that mean +2-3k than Light Equip pack.
So we got a winner: Elite Ritualist Tome, so price of GCoins is 12/13k.
IF the price of tomes DROP, then we must recalculate all and maximize again the amount of money you can get with a single coin.
Feel free to think a different way,but this is the logic how the price are set.

Urcscumug · Jun 04, 2011, 02:50 PM // 14:50

No. Prices are set by various NPC traders who offer certain items for direct gold conversion rates. Eg. lockpicks, scrolls, the ecto etc. Who in turn get their rates directly from supply and demand, by tracking sold and bought items.

The moment zcoins became directly tradeable, it meant they must fall in line with these other items. Which already have established prices, which are not going to change because the supply is steady and the gold conversion rate is readily available.

Simply put, it's simpler to force one item (rit elite tomes) to adjust price to market, than to expect everything else to change to accomodate it. Some discrepancies were tolerated for some items for as long as zcoins were insulated from the market. Not anymore.

Meta profession elite tomes will be valued at cap, and lesser professions at lesser values. I maintain my opinion regarding 6-8k. I will of course accept educated guesses as to otherwise; but difficulty of farming elite tomes is not a relevant factor.

Lots of items are difficult to farm yet there's no shortage of them. You're confusing effort of obtaining something with scarcity. There's no direct relation. In GW, scarcity is directly related to statistical probability of drop, and those tables are fixed. To put this in simpler terms: it doesn't matter how hard it is to get to a source of drops; all it matters are the chances for a particular drop. And those rates are known and have already established market equivalents.

The zcoin is the new kid on the market and it will have to fit into it, not the other way around.

Verene · Jun 04, 2011, 03:36 PM // 15:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Urcscumug

6-8k for zkeys, gold zcoins and elite tomes. The only reason elite tomes were more was because they required 2 gold zcoins.

No, more like they stayed more because they commonly went for more than that beforehand. Try selling an elite Assassin tome for that much and watch yourself get laughed out of the game. I really don't think many people used coins for elite tomes at all because the exchange simply wasn't worth it before.

I don't see this really changing the price of tomes or keys that much, since coins really can't be readily and easily farmed. The gold coins themselves will probably settle around 8-9k, I think.

Kunder · Jun 04, 2011, 04:15 PM // 16:15

In the long run everything will be worth its price in Zcoins or less, due to the differences in supply/demand from secondary supply sources or limited market demand. The only reason this hasn't happened now is because the on-hand supply of Zcoins is highly limited, no one was stockpiling them before. At the same time, Envoy weapons are the E-peen on the week, so Zcoin demand massively outstrips demand for any of the other items. Eventually things will balance out as the Zcoin supply over time ramps up and all items bought primarily through Zcoins will converge to the same equivalent price per Zcoin required to obtain.

Hopefully, Zcoins quickly become the new secondary unit of trade and can replace Zkeys, but that will require the market to act in an intelligent fashion which is always impossible to rely on.